Monthly Archives: November 2011

The Weekend Rundown

Lots of goodness going down this weekend, and it all starts tonight.

Men’s Hoops

Friday – Davidson at Duke. Call me crazy, but I like the Blue Devils.

Sunday – Mississippi Valley State at UNC. Call me crazy, but I like the Delta Devils

Women’s Soccer

Friday – UNC vs. Baylor, in Gainesville. Second round NCAA action. If UNC wins, they’ll play Sunday against (probably) Florida.

Friday – Georgia at Duke. Can’t wait for this. Duke will host games through the quarterfinals if they keep winning. Like UNC, they’ll play again at 1pm Sunday if they win, against the winner of Ohio State and UW-Milwaukee.

Men’s Soccer

Sunday – Duke vs. New Mexico. The Devils won their first round NCAA match against Georgia State, and will now travel to Albuquerque to try to continue the run.

Sunday – UNC vs. Coastal Carolina. UNC had a first-round bye, and will host a second round game at Fetzer. Hopefully it doesn’t rain; Coastal Carolina is from the ocean, and they love playing on water.

Field Hockey

Friday – UNC vs. Connecticut, 2pm. It’s the Final Four! If UNC wins, they’ll face Old Dominion or Maryland in the championship Sunday at noon. They’ve beaten both already this season, though ODU handed the Heels their only loss early on. UNC has faced Maryland in the championship the past two season, with a win in 2009 and a loss in 2010. If you have any inclination, you can watch this one live on NCAA.com.

Back this afternoon with the Triangle Prophets. Enjoy your weekend.

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Carolina vs. UNC-Asheville: +/- and Defensive Charting

Caveat: Single-game +/- figures are so “noisy” (i.e., influenced by randomness) that they’re rendered practically useless. Even with a complete season’s worth of data, the +/- metric (especially in this– its unadjusted– form) suffers from this noisiness. Still, when taken in conjunction with the defensive box score, traditional box score, and old-fashioned “eye test,” the single-game +/- can be a part of the total evaluation process. It also serves as a good summary of Roy Williams’s substitution patterns/rotation.

Some definitions:

Pts-Pts All.: the points scored and points allowed by the team during a given player’s minutes
Off Eff: the points scored per 100 possessions with a given player on the court
Def Eff: the points allowed per 100 possessions with a given player on the court
Net Eff: the scoring margin per 100 possessions with a given player on the court

+/- Stats vs. UNC-Asheville

Player Minutes Pts-Pts All. Off Eff Def Eff Net Eff
Watts 9.4 27-19 145.9 108.6 +37.3
Marshall 32.9 80-58 121.2 90.6 +30.6
Barnes 30.1 69-51 113.1 86.4 +26.7
Zeller 29.2 67-52 113.6 90.4 +23.2
Hairston 11.4 32-27 145.5 122.7 +22.8
TEAM 40.0 91-75 115.2 94.9 +20.3
Henson 29.2 63-54 107.7 92.3 +15.4
McAdoo 9.3 23-21 127.8 113.5 +14.3
Strickland 29.5 58-51 100.0 87.9 +12.1
Bullock 11.8 31-32 129.2 128.0 +1.2
Hubert/Simmons/Cooper/Crouch 1.5 1-2 50.0 66.7 -16.7
Dupont 1.1 0-0 0.0 0.0 0.0
White 0.4 1-2 100.0 200.0 -100.0

Continue reading

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Basketball Won’t Go Away

Each week, contributor and new parent Joey will post his thoughts as he undergoes the transformation from fanboy to father.

You probably saw the title of this post, and immediately began an inner-monologue, railing against me and what I stand for: “What in the hell is he thinking? I’ve waited since late spring for hoops to return. The NBA is locked-out, but I’ve finally got college ball to watch, and now this clown wants it to leave?!? What the…”  Just bear with me.

I’ve never said it in this space, but I won’t try to influence my daughter’s fandom. I’ll let her pick her allegiances on her own if/when she ever decides to do so. That said, she’s going to have a hard time ignoring the looming presence that Carolina basketball has had on her life, even before she took her first breath.

I’ve never been very close to the program. I’ve known folks who worked for the team. I’ve been lucky enough through various avenues in my life to have some access to the program. But, for a guy who for the most part, is just a rabid fan of Carolina Basketball, the nuance that has permeated my young adulthood/marriage/early fatherhood is pretty curious. No, I didn’t get to name her Raysheed McHarrisonbrough, but somehow, my personal road has intersected with Carolina hoops in some quite ironic ways. A few examples, if I may:  Continue reading

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Why #903 is Truly Historic

Let me start by offering congratulations to Mike Krzyzewski for win #903. Duke has been one of the top basketball programs in the country for three decades and Blue Devil fans everywhere have one man to thank for that. I may not agree with the people who think he’s a great man of integrity and class, but he can flat out coach college basketball. There is no denying that. While he’s had a plethora of talent in his 36 years at the helm, his teams win consistently because they are disciplined and play intelligent basketball. He’s figured out a formula for success in college basketball and executed and evolved it almost flawlessly for his entire career.

Are some records truly untouchable? These records certainly seem that way:

  • Joe DiMaggio’s 56 game hitting streak
  • Cal Ripken’s 2,632 consecutive game streak
  • Wayne Gretzky’s 2,857 career points
  • Pete Maravich’s 44.2pts/game college scoring average
  • Wilt Chamberlin’s 50.4pts/game in the 1951/52 NBA season

What are some others that you think will never be broken?

As a Carolina fan, I was of course saddened when Bobby Knight passed Coach Smith for first place all time in division 1 wins. What dissapointed me the most, however, was knowing that Coach K was also inevitably going to jump ahead of Coach Smith, and would eventually surge to number one on the list. That’s just the nature of sports, I suppose. Yet, seeing Krzyzewski get win #903 got me wondering. Is it possible that no one will be able to top him? After putting together such a long career of sustained success, will anyone be able to match that in today’s game? Is this one of those records that will go down as “unbreakable”?

I decided to do a comparison of the big name coaches around the country to see how likely it is that anyone will be able to pass Coach K in the coming years.  Continue reading

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That was Ugly

(Amigos- my take on Coach K’s 903rd win for Grantland can be found here. Below is Marc’s. Thanks for reading. -Shane)

Thanks Mike, Now I can be crotchety in peace.

With sixteen minutes and twenty-seconds remaining in the second half Andre Dawkins buried a three pointer over a Michigan State Defender.  It was the beginning of a 17-1 Duke span where the Blue Devils started to run away with the game.  I felt content as I knew that Coach K was about to waltz into the history books against a gritty opponent.  I should have known better. Michigan State clawed back into the game with nine minutes remaining as the Duke offense went into “stall-ball,” and the shots stopped falling.  In the end Duke’s lead was too large for Michigan State to overcome and the Blue Devils pulled out a toughly fought victory. Congratulations to Coach K for becoming the winningest Coach in college basketball!

Continue reading

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903 plus catching up with Fall Sports

My official thoughts on #903 are coming later today at Grantland, and I’ll link them here. For now, let me give you a synopsis:

-Coach K is amazing.
-Andre Dawkins is a badass.
-Austin Rivers is a work in progress, but last night was ugly.
-The Plumlees are about as bad as we could ever imagine.
-This team is probably not #6 in the country.

Like I said, a lot more coming later. Now, quick fall sports updates.

Women’s Soccer:

1. The Duke women beat Radford with ease in the first round of the NCAA tournament. They’ll face Georgia in Round Two Friday night at home.  Duke, a 1-seed, will have homefield advantage through the quarterfinals if they keep winning.

2. The UNC women posted a 3-0 victory over William & Mary. They’ll face Baylor in Florida Friday afternoon, and will likely meet Florida, a 2-seed, if they reach the Sweet 16.

Men’s Soccer:

1. Duke lost in the semifinals of the ACC tournament to Boston College, and will face Georgia State in the NCAA first round at home tomorrow night.

2. After winning the ACC tournament, UNC is a 1-seed with a first round bye. The Heels will play at home against Elon or Coastal Carolina Sunday night.

Field Hockey:

1. Duke lost in the Elite 8 to Old Dominion, the #2 overall seed.
2. UNC, the best team in the country, is in the Final Four. A rematch with Maryland, who they’ve met in the championship game the past two years (lost in 2010, won in 2009), is looking very possible.

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On the Brink

"Get your licks in now. In thirty years I'll be the champ."

To begin, Sports Illustrated has a wonderful gallery of Mike Krzyzewski pictures located here. Anyone who has paid attention to the sports world this year has noticed an increased amount of attention placed on Coach K this year.  Why? Coach K is about to be the winningest coach in college basketball history.  His next victory, #903, will put him above his old coach Bob Knight.  This record may never be defeated because 903 is a huge number and Coach K has numerous years of coaching ahead of him.  He will continue to win 25-35 games a year and the number will only grow larger as time passes.  His career has been nothing short of remarkable.  Early struggles almost sent him into coaching obscurity, but Duke stuck with Coach K and has been wonderfully rewarded.

Continue reading

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Carolina vs. Michigan State: +/- and Defensive Charting

Before getting to the first +/- table of the season, some words of caution: single-game +/- figures are so “noisy” (i.e., influenced by randomness) that they’re rendered practically useless. Even with a complete season’s worth of data, the +/- metric (especially in this– its unadjusted– form) suffers from this noisiness. Still, when taken in conjunction with the defensive box score, traditional box score, and old-fashioned “eye test,” the single-game +/- can be a part of the total evaluation process. It also serves as a good summary of Roy Williams’s substitution patterns/rotation.

Some definitions:

Pts-Pts All.: the points scored and points allowed by the team during a given player’s minutes
Off Eff: the points scored per 100 possessions with a given player on the court
Def Eff: the points allowed per 100 possessions with a given player on the court
Net Eff: the scoring margin per 100 possessions with a given player on the court

+/- Stats vs. Michigan State

Player Minutes Pts-Pts All. Off Eff Def Eff Net Eff
Hairston 8.9 19-11 126.7 73.3 +53.3
McAdoo 16.3 36-27 124.1 87.1 +37.0
Marshall 32.8 57-41 101.8 73.2 +28.6
Zeller 30.9 52-39 100.0 76.5 +23.5
Strickland 33.7 55-41 94.8 73.9 +20.9
TEAM 40.0 67-55 97.1 79.7 +17.4
Henson 30.5 43-36 81.1 69.9 +11.2
Barnes 31.6 48-44 87.3 80.0 +7.3
Bullock 11.7 19-24 90.5 106.7 -16.2
Hubert/White 1.3 3-4 150.0 133.3 +16.7
Watts 1.1 0-4 0.0 266.7 -266.7
+/- by Backcourt
Combo Minutes Pts-Pts-All.
Marshall-Strickland 27.8 48-31
Marshall-Bullock 4.5 9-10
Strickland-Hairston 3.7 7-4
Strickland-Bullock 2.2 0-6
White-Hairston 1.3 3-4
Marshall-Hairston 0.5 0-0
+/- by Frontcourt
Henson-Zeller 22.6 31-24
McAdoo-Henson 7.8 12-12
McAdoo-Zeller 7.2 21-11
McAdoo-Hubert 1.3 3-4
Watts-Zeller 1.1 0-4
Most-used Line-ups
Marshall-Strickland-Barnes-Henson-Zeller 22.1 31-24
Strickland-Hairston-Bullock-McAdoo-Henson 3.7 7-4
Marshall-Strickland-Hairston-McAdoo-Zeller 3.0 9-3
Marshall-Strickland-Barnes-McAdoo-Zeller 2.4 8-4

When Bullock and Hairston were paired together on the wings, I called Hairston the 2 and Bullock the 3. Continue reading

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Of Fairy Tales and Fallacies: Coach K and Paterno

Please welcome Jill to the TRB fray. This is her first post for the site.

Once upon a time, during a chilly November, two revered athletic programs sat on the brink of history. In one arena, nearly 10,000 fans, dressed in blue and white, cheered in adoration, celebrating their legendary coach. In another, over 100,000 fans, also dressed in blue and white, cheered in confusion, mourning the loss of theirs. Only 435 miles separate the Gothic Wonderland from Happy Valley, but on Saturday, the two college havens, both of which sound like villages out of a fairy tale, could not feel farther apart.

As we have recently and painfully learned, a storybook ending can be rewritten in a matter of days. On October 29th, Coach Joe Paterno set the all-time record for wins in Division I football. His Penn State faithful worshiped accordingly, kneeling in reverence before his bronze statue on campus. The man they lovingly call JoePa, like everyone’s favorite grandpa, was an elder statesman who ruled over his Happy Valley Kingdom for six decades with a heart seemingly made of gold. Although insufferably arrogant at times, it was with this heart that he set a gold standard, both for his football program and for his university. He poured his soul into Penn State, he donated and raised millions of dollars, he won two championships without one NCAA infraction, he benefited the lives of thousands. Those facts are unquestionable. On November 9th, just 11 days after making history, Joe Paterno was unceremoniously fired by telephone. It is also unquestionable that he deserved to be.

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Triangle Prophets, Week 11

Every Friday, a group of fearless webmasters and sports fanatics from around the Triangle will gather to predict five college football games against the spread. Every Duke, Carolina, and N.C. State game will be featured, along with a smattering of high profile non-Triangle games. As the season goes along, we’ll keep the standings updated and see who emerges as the one true prophet. Make your predictions in the comment section. Each week, we’ll feature any and all commenters who pick all 5 games correctly.

Current Standings

1. John Watson, The Devil’s Den – 29.5 points

2. Nate Friedman, UNC football correspondent26.5 points

3. Me – 25.5 points

4. Tar Heel Fan Blog – 24.5 points
4. James Henderson, Publisher, Pack Pride – 24.5 points

6. The Devil Wolf, TRB – 23.5 points

7. Jim Young, Editor, ACCSports.com – 22.5 points

8. William Earnhardt, Site Designer – 20.5 points

Continue reading

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