Monthly Archives: November 2011

+/- and Defensive Charting Bonanza: Tennessee State, South Carolina, and UNLV

Caveat: Single-game +/- figures are so “noisy” (i.e., influenced by randomness) that they’re rendered practically useless. Even with a complete season’s worth of data, the +/- metric (especially in this– its unadjusted– form) suffers from this noisiness. Still, when taken in conjunction with the defensive box score, traditional box score, and old-fashioned “eye test,” the single-game +/- can be a part of the total evaluation process. It also serves as a good summary of Roy Williams’s substitution patterns/rotation.

Some definitions:

Pts-Pts All.: the points scored and points allowed by the team during a given player’s minutes
Off Eff: the points scored per 100 possessions with a given player on the court
Def Eff: the points allowed per 100 possessions with a given player on the court
Net Eff: the scoring margin per 100 possessions with a given player on the court

Since I’m dumping three games worth of data, I won’t provide many thoughts/explanations/trends/nuggets in this post. I’ve been posting a bunch of +/- and defensive charting tidbits on Twitter @FreeportKid, so definitely check that out if you’re interested in this kind of stuff. Once the schedule slows down a little (four games in one week is pretty intense), I’ll post a summary article discussing some +/- and defensive charting trends, analyses, and insights (especially some defensive stuff that relates to the UNLV loss, and some thoughts regarding Strickland/Bullock/Hairston and the allocation of minutes in the Carolina backcourt). Sorry this is essentially a pure data dump; I promise some analysis later (to provide some context and meaning to this sea of numbers).

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Last Week

If you were able to watch the marquee games in college basketball last week then you found yourself treated to a variety of fantastic performances.  We saw the Blue Devils take the Maui Invitational with gritty wins against Tennessee, Michigan, and Kansas.  The Kansas game resembled an NCAA tournament game as both teams displayed toughness and heart in a nail biter.  Duke found an unlikely hero in Tyler Thornton as he drained two three pointers to stick a dagger in Kansas.  Here are a few points I observed throughout the tournament for Duke:

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Mike Krzyzewski, Jeff Van Gundy, and Your Parents Having Sex

Of the countless images we were bombarded with in the past few weeks, perhaps none were as disturbing as the one of a young Mike Krzyzewski in his West Point basketball uniform, standing next to his coach, Robert Montgomery Knight. In juxtaposition to the sight of these two men embracing after the Michigan State game, it is quite a powerful image. Forty some years and thousands of basketball games later, these two men have become giants of their profession, and their legacies will be forever intertwined. On its own, however, the image leaves me with a completely different kind of feeling: “yucch.”

Mentor and Pupil

The height of my childhood basketball fandom was watching the many epic and emotionally transcendent playoff series between the New York Knicks and the Miami Heat. I was particularly fascinated by the coaching match-up. On the one hand, there was Pat Riley – dapper, well-dressed, and to this day the only sports figure my mother can recognize. He was stylish, seemed very intelligent, and exuded a blend of confidence and athleticism unlike any person I had ever met. On the other hand, there was Jeff Van Gundy – short, un-graceful and sporting a particularly unconvincing and uninspired comb over.

Growing up on Long Island, it was an all too familiar appearance (and one that I myself have begun to approach). It seemed strange to me that these men had the same profession, and I wondered what their backgrounds were. Where were they from? What were their majors in college? How does one become a basketball coach anyway? I was able to guess that they must have played basketball at some point in their youth, and had no trouble picturing Riley as a player. He probably could have torn off his Armani suit, picked up a ball and played a few minutes with his team. Van Gundy was a different story.  I couldn’t picture him playing in a middle school church league, let alone as a pro or college basketball player. For some reason, I just couldn’t bring myself to conceive of such an image. I took these concerns to school the next day. It was then that I learned one of the most meaningful lessons of my childhood. I don’t quite remember who broke it to me, but it came down to this:

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The Season Finale: Duke – UNC

What a crazy weekend in sports we just had. Three NFL games on Thanksgiving Day, including a victory by my beloved Ravens in the first-ever meeting of sibling head coaches. A slew of rivalry games, including an awesome game between Denard Robinson and Ohio State that ended with Michigan breaking its absurdly long string of losses to its rival. The NBA lockout ended as both the players and owners realized that until after the Super Bowl, 95% of America really couldn’t give less of a shit about the NBA. They ended the lockout specifically at 3 am after watching enough compelling NCAA basketball to realize that until after March Madness, 75% of America still won’t care about the NBA even when football ends.

The best part? UNC beat Duke in its annual slamfest. The last time Duke beat UNC was seven years ago. Since I matriculated at UNC from 2006-2010,  I literally don’t know what the Victory Bell looks like painted any color other than Carolina blue. The silver lining for Duke fans is that there are only about nine of you that care about football at all.

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The Ongoing Thrill of Duke Guard Play

Hey gang, check out my piece on Austin Rivers, Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins, and the legacy of Duke guards here. Also contains thoughts on the Michigan and Tennessee wins, and picture documentation of the best zone break-down in history (maybe).

Happy Thanksgiving!

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Hope!

The Duke-Michigan State game was a complete disaster for the brothers Plumlee.  Their mental errors were egregious and they were physically dominated by a tough Michigan State interior.  I lost all of my optimism for the Plumlees at the end of the Michigan State game. It took a long time for me to reach the realization that the Plumlees will never play up to their potential while they wear a Duke uniform. After the MSU game I decided to temper my expectations and appreciate the Plumlees for what they are: players with copious amounts of potential, who show flashes of brilliance, but can’t put it all together. I know what the Plumlees bring the table and decided to enjoy watching them play, rather than focusing on unrealistic expectations. But, like a crazy ex-girlfriend you can’t stay away from, the Plumlees have given me a reignited and unrealistic hope in them.

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Carolina vs. Miss. Valley St.: +/- and Defensive Charting

Caveat: Single-game +/- figures are so “noisy” (i.e., influenced by randomness) that they’re rendered practically useless. Even with a complete season’s worth of data, the +/- metric (especially in this– its unadjusted– form) suffers from this noisiness. Still, when taken in conjunction with the defensive box score, traditional box score, and old-fashioned “eye test,” the single-game +/- can be a part of the total evaluation process. It also serves as a good summary of Roy Williams’s substitution patterns/rotation.

Some definitions:

Pts-Pts All.: the points scored and points allowed by the team during a given player’s minutes
Off Eff: the points scored per 100 possessions with a given player on the court
Def Eff: the points allowed per 100 possessions with a given player on the court
Net Eff: the scoring margin per 100 possessions with a given player on the court

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Amigos,

You can read my Maui Invitational preview, complete with some history and predictions, here.

In other news from the weekend:

-Duke women’s soccer has advanced to the Elite 8 with a 2-1 win over Ohio State.

-The UNC women lost 5-4 in a shootout to UCF in the Sweet 16 after tying 1-1 after regulation and two overtimes. Thus ends the worst season in UNC history.

-The UNC men have advanced to the third round with a 3-2 win over Coastal Carolina. They had to come back from down 1-0 at half.

-The Duke men lost a late one to New Mexico, 2-1 in overtime, ending their season.

-In the field hockey national championship, UNC took a 2-0 lead into the final four minutes of play, but gave up the lead and eventually lost 3-2 to Maryland in overtime.

Duke-Tennessee at 5:30.

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Optipessimism Week 10: UNC – Virginia Tech

Duke fans, you actually might want to read this one.

A disclaimer as we get into it: I’m going to talk very little about the UNC-VT game. Want to know why? Okay, what was the score of the game?

If it took you more than a couple seconds to come up with the answer, VT 24 – UNC 21, well, that’s why. UNC played hard in this game for about the first eight minutes, folded the middle thirty, then decided to make the score respectable toward the end. I just can’t get excited about a team that seems like it has tuned out for the season, just as many Carolina fans have. The score wasn’t nearly as close as it looked, because let’s be honest – if you watched the game, you knew that all the Hokies had to do if they wanted to score was run jailbreak screen passes and send their phenomenal tailback, David Wilson, on stretch plays and wait for UNC to miss seven tackles.

So UNC sits at 6-5 on the season, with wins over most of the “bad” teams on their schedule except NC State (yes, they really do suck) and losses to most of the “good” teams like Virginia Tech, Clemson, and GT. With just one game left in the season – the annual Victory Bell game against Duke – it’s a fairly safe bet to say this has been an underachieving, mediocre edition of Carolina football. But really, who can blame them considering the events of the summer and fall? After all, they’re still going to go to a bowl game….

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Triangle Prophets, Week 12

Every Friday, a group of fearless webmasters and sports fanatics from around the Triangle will gather to predict five college football games against the spread. Every Duke, Carolina, and N.C. State game will be featured, along with a smattering of high profile non-Triangle games. As the season goes along, we’ll keep the standings updated and see who emerges as the one true prophet. Make your predictions in the comment section. Each week, we’ll feature any and all commenters who pick all 5 games correctly.

Current Standings

1. John Watson, The Devil’s Den – 31.5 points

2. The Devil Wolf, TRB – 26.5 points
2. Nate Friedman, UNC football correspondent26.5 points
2.
Me – 26.5 points
2. Tar Heel Fan Blog – 26.5 points

6. James Henderson, Publisher, Pack Pride – 25.5 points

7. Jim Young, Editor, ACCSports.com – 23.5 points

8. William Earnhardt, Site Designer – 21.5 points

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