Tag Archives: Overconfidence

Carolina Loss Aversion

As a fan, I readily admit to unreasonable expectations.  I’m not remotely objective.  I create wildly optimistic scenarios and pretend they are objective and realistic.  It’s what fans do and it’s entirely human, if not quite “normal.”

We all live in an overconfident, Lake Wobegon world (“where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average”).  We are only correct about 80% of the time when we are “99% sure.” Despite the experiences of anyone who has gone to college (even at Duke), fully 94% of college professors believe they have above-average teaching skills. Since 80% of drivers  say that their driving skills are above average, I guess none of them are on the freeway when I am.  While 70% of high school students claim to have above-average leadership skills, only 2% say they are below average, no doubt taught by above average math teachers.  In a finding that pretty well sums things up, 85-90% of people think that the future will be more pleasant and less painful for them than for the average person.

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